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在当前的农业干旱事件应对和管理中,常仅根据气象干旱结果,被动采取抗旱措施,造成应对操作相对滞后,极易对农业造成较大损失,威胁区域粮食安全。通过将气象干旱与抗旱能力相结合,提出了一个更符合实际旱情发展的评估方法。基于降雨与土壤墒情指标,通过模糊综合评价法,评估了灌区实时旱情;通过分析未来供需水情势,预估了灌区的水源盈缺关系;最后,耦合实时旱情与水源情势指标,构建了灌区干旱预警指标和一套较为完整且简单实用的干旱预警体系。以泾惠渠灌区为例开展了干旱预警实例研究,预警结果与泾惠渠管理局官方监测结果基本一致,验证了预警结果的准确性和可靠性。研究成果对干旱半干旱地区灌区,特别是多水源灌区的干旱预警工作具有一定的参考价值。
In the current response to and management of agricultural drought events, drought control measures are often adopted only on the basis of the meteorological drought. As a result, the response operations are lagging behind. This can easily cause great losses to agriculture and threaten the regional food security. By combining meteorological drought and drought resistance, a new assessment method that is more consistent with the actual drought development is proposed. Based on the indexes of rainfall and soil moisture, the real-time drought in irrigation area was evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. By analyzing the future supply and demand situation of water supply and demand, the relationship between water shortage and profit in irrigation area was estimated. Finally, by combining real-time drought and water source index, Early warning indicators and a more complete and simple and practical drought warning system. Taking Jinghuiqu Irrigation District as an example, a case study of drought warning was carried out. The result of the early warning was basically the same as that of the official monitoring result of Jinghuiqu Administration, which verified the accuracy and reliability of the early warning result. The research results have certain reference value for the drought warning in the irrigated areas, especially the multi-irrigation areas in arid and semi-arid areas.