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气候变化对物种分布的影响是珍稀濒危物种资源保护研究的热点问题之一。利用Maxent模型预测浙江楠在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和2070年4个历史时期的潜在分布区,分析浙江楠各个历史时期的分布格局,并评估了不同气候因子对其潜在地理分布的影响。结果表明,Maxent模型模拟现代分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.996。高度适生区包括浙江省与福建省交汇的武夷山、仙霞岭、浙江东南部的洞宫山、雁荡山等较高海拔山地地带,中度适生区位于幕阜山、罗霄山、怀玉山、武夷山、黄山、天目山、会稽山、雁荡山、洞宫山等低海拔丘陵地区。末次盛冰期浙江楠潜在分布区位于东海大陆架内;全新世中期分布区与现代相似,但面积更大,向低海拔地区延伸;2070年潜在分布区有北扩东进的趋势。Jackknife检验表明,影响浙江楠地理分布的主要因子有最干季降水量、最冷季降水量和最干季均温。
The impact of climate change on species distribution is one of the hot issues in the research on the conservation of rare and endangered species resources. The Maxent model was used to predict the potential distribution of southern Nan in the last ice age, mid-Holocene, modern and 4 historic periods in 2070, and to analyze the distribution pattern of each species in Zhejiang Nan during historical periods and to evaluate the potential geographical distribution of the different climatic factors influences. The results show that the Maxent model is very accurate in simulating the modern distribution area, and the area under the working characteristic curve (AUC) of the subjects reaches 0.996. Highly suitable areas include Wuyishan, Xianxialing where Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province meet, Donggong Mountain and Yandang Mountain in the southeast of Zhejiang. The moderately suitable areas are located in Mufushan Mountain, Luoxiao Mountain, Huaiyu Mountain, Wuyishan, Huangshan, Tianmu Mountain, Huiji Mountain, Yandang Hill, Donggongshan and other low elevation hilly areas. The potential distribution area of Nannan in the last glaciation period is located in the continental shelf of the East China Sea. The mid-Holocene distribution area is similar to the modern one, but larger in area and extending to the lower elevation area. The potential distribution area in 2070 tends to expand northwards and eastwards. Jackknife test showed that the main factors influencing the geographical distribution of Nannan were the driest precipitation, the coldest precipitation and the driest temperature.