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随着经济下行压力的逐步增大和经济结构性调整的客观要求,伴随着全面减税政策和刚性支出增加的双重压力下的财政赤字缺口将进一步加大,债务累积迭加带来财政风险的可能性加大,现有关于财政风险与债务研究的文献主要集中于相关风险评估以及预警指标体系的构建,其防范财政风险的手段和政策建议也主要集中在收支和债务管理上,鲜有文献从宏观经济变量的角度定量分析财政风险的形成和传导机制。本文从政府动态预算约束出发,通过构建VAR模型,分析了支出冲击对于赤字缺口、债务规模以及债务收益率的影响,研究结论显示,我国现阶段化解财政风险的主要手段为以收支调整和债务控制为主的数量型调整政策,且存在“超调”现象,而以债券收益率调整为代表的价格型调整政策效果甚微,基于此应进一步控制债务规模和加快利率市场化改革以完善市场价格传导机制,从而为化解财政风险开辟一条更为广阔的路径。
With the gradual increase of economic downward pressure and the objective requirement of structural adjustment of economy, the fiscal deficit gap will further increase under the dual pressures of a comprehensive tax reduction policy and an increase in rigid expenditure. The cumulative risk of debt accumulation may bring financial risks The existing literature on financial risk and debt research mainly focuses on the related risk assessment and the construction of the early warning indicator system. The means of preventing financial risks and policy recommendations are also mainly focused on revenue and expenditure and debt management. There is little literature Quantitative Analysis of the Formation and Transmission Mechanism of Financial Risks from the Perspective of Macroeconomic Variables. Based on the government dynamic budget constraint, this paper analyzes the impact of expenditure shock on the deficit gap, debt scale and debt yield by constructing VAR model. The conclusion shows that the main means to defuse fiscal risk in our country is to adjust the income and expenditure and debt Control-oriented quantitative adjustment policy, and there is “overshoot ” phenomenon, and bond-yield adjustment as the representative of the price-based adjustment policy has little effect, based on which should further control the debt scale and speed up the market-based interest rate reform Improve the market price transmission mechanism, thus opening up a broader path for resolving fiscal risks.