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化肥价格的稳定对于我国农业经济的发展具有重要意义。本文基于2006年1月至2015年3月钾肥出厂价格与国际原油价格的月度数据,运用门槛回归和动量门槛回归捕捉我国化肥市场价格传导的非对称关系,并构建非对称误差修正模型,分析化肥价格与国际原油价格之间的动态关系。实证结果显示:第一,能源价格和化肥价格存在长期协整关系;第二,能源价格和化肥价格均是自身价格波动的格兰杰原因;第三,能源价格存在负的非对称性价格传导,化肥价格应对正负向冲击的反应速率不尽相同,但影响十分微弱。
The stability of fertilizer prices is of great significance to the development of China’s agricultural economy. Based on the monthly data of the ex-factory price of potash fertilizer and the international crude oil price from January 2006 to March 2015, this paper uses the threshold regression and the momentum threshold regression to capture the asymmetric relationship of price transmission in China’s fertilizer market and builds the asymmetric error correction model to analyze the chemical fertilizer Dynamic Relationship between Price and International Crude Oil Price. The empirical results show that: firstly, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between energy prices and fertilizer prices; second, energy prices and fertilizer prices are Granger causes of their own price fluctuations; third, there is a negative asymmetric price conduction of energy prices , The reaction rate of fertilizer prices to positive and negative impact varies, but the impact is very weak.