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文章采用典型相关分析测定了石油与煤炭、天然气、电能间的相关系数。结论是油价上涨对主要替代能源的供需产生影响,但程度不一。油价上涨对矿物性或化石类能源的影响要大于对非矿物性能源的影响,这是因为前者的开发利用主要建立在资源禀赋和可获得能力上,而后者则建立在一定的技术实力和资金基础上。虽然各国情况有所不同,但依据总体指标计算出来的这种相关关系,可帮助我们了解未来世界能源结构和各种能源供需的总体状况。
The article uses canonical correlation analysis to determine the correlation coefficient between petroleum and coal, natural gas and electric energy. The conclusion is that rising oil prices have an impact on the supply and demand of major alternative energy sources, but to varying degrees. The impact of rising oil prices on mineral or fossil energy sources is greater than on non-mineral energy sources because the former’s development and utilization are mainly based on resource endowments and available capacity, while the latter is based on a certain amount of technical strength and capital basically. Although the situation varies from country to country, the correlation calculated on the basis of overall indicators can help us understand the overall energy supply structure and energy supply in the world in the future.