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在借鉴相关研究成果的基础上,以四川省成都、绵阳、甘孜、阿坝4个站作为川西北地区的代表站,利用1960-2010年的日降水量资料,选取了4种常用于拟合季度降水分布的概率分布模型,分别对上述四站的夏季降水概率分布模型进行了优选。并在此基础上,结合国家气象干旱标准,建立了川西北地区夏季干旱危险性综合评估模型,并对该地区夏季干旱进行了深入的分析。
Based on the related research results, four stations in Chengdu, Mianyang, Ganzi and Aba in Sichuan Province were selected as the representative stations in northwestern Sichuan. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, Precipitation distribution of the probability distribution model, respectively, the above four stations summer precipitation probability distribution model was optimized. On this basis, combined with the national meteorological drought standards, a comprehensive assessment model of summer drought in northwestern Sichuan was established, and the summer drought in the area was analyzed in depth.