可持续发展模式下产业-区域经济的系统仿真研究——基于系统动力与灰色预测模型下宜宾产业发展演变

来源 :成都师范学院学报 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:saddd11
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以宜宾产业结构为研究对象,以系统动力学理论为基础,对宜宾地区人才流、技术流、资金流和市场流的因果关系进行分析。应用灰色预测模型对产业结构的时空演化进行预测,比较不同预测结果,分析产业结构调整的主要因素,提出从生态、社会、经济等方面改善宜宾的发展状态,实现社会经济可持续发展。 Taking Yibin industrial structure as the research object and based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between talent flow, technology flow, cash flow and market flow in Yibin. Forecasting the temporal and spatial evolution of industrial structure by using gray forecasting model, comparing different prediction results, analyzing the main factors of industrial structure adjustment, and proposing to improve the state of development of Yibin in terms of ecology, society and economy so as to achieve sustainable socio-economic development.
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