论文部分内容阅读
为全面反映地方政府建设用地供给行为对人口生活、生产活动地点选择的影响,明确建设用地供给结构变动影响人口流动的机理,本文通过构建包含地方政府、企业和居民三类主体的一般均衡模型,利用模型的求解和数值模拟,提出研究假设,在此基础上,利用2001-2013年山东省地级市层面的面板数据,运用门限回归分析方法,实证分析了地方政府建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响方式。研究发现:1建设用地供给结构对人口流入呈现出特殊倒U型的影响方式,在(0,0.823]和(0.823,∞)两个区间内,建设用地供给结构对人口流入影响的偏回归系数分别为2.307 2、-2.133 1,处于不同区间时,建设用地供给结构对人口流入的影响方式存在明显差异;2建设用地供给结构对人口流入影响的偏回归系数的绝对值小于人口规模(26.617 3)和城市区位(11.445 5),但是大于基础设施投资水平(1.399 5),说明建设用地供给结构对人口流入的影响程度介于人口规模、城市区位与基础设施投资水平之间,其对人口流动具有较为重要的影响。地方政府可以利用建设用地供给结构作为工具,根据自身对人口流入的实际需求采取差别性的调控方式,吸引或引导人口流入或流出。
In order to fully reflect the influence of local governments’ supply of construction land on the choice of population’s livelihood and production activities and to clarify the mechanism of population flow caused by the structural changes of construction land supply, this paper constructs a general equilibrium model that includes three types of main bodies, namely, local governments, enterprises and residents, Based on this, using the panel data of prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013 and using the threshold regression analysis method, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of the supply structure of the construction land of local governments on the population flow The way of influence. The results show that: (1) The influence of supply structure of construction land on population inflow shows a special inverted U-shape, and the partial regression coefficient of the effect of supply structure of land for construction on population inflow is within (0,0.823] and (0.823, ∞) (2.307 2 and -2.133 1 respectively). When in different intervals, there are obvious differences in the impact of construction land supply structure on population inflow. (2) The absolute value of the partial regression coefficient of the supply structure of construction land to population inflow is smaller than the population scale (26.617 3 ) And urban area (11.445 5), but it is larger than the level of infrastructure investment (1.399 5), indicating that the impact of the supply structure of construction land on population inflow ranges from population size to urban area to infrastructure investment, Has a more important impact.Local governments can use the supply structure of construction land as a tool to adopt different regulation and control methods to attract or guide the population to flow in or out according to their actual demand for population inflow.