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本文基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场13个样本国家1980~2013年的季度数据,运用静态和动态非均衡面板模型,对国际资本流动两种重要形式——直接投资和证券投资的动因进行区域比较研究。实证结果表明:本国和发达国家经济发展水平均对新兴市场的国际资本流动具有较为明显的拉动和推动作用;贸易开放度、利率水平、金融深化程度等表征一国投资环境的指标是国际资本流动的重要驱动因素;重大事件的发生、经济预期和汇市预期等预期因素的作用亦不可忽视;直接投资和证券投资的驱动因素存在显著的区域性差异。
Based on the quarterly data of 13 sample countries in Asia and Latin America in 1980 ~ 2013, this paper uses the static and dynamic unbalanced panel models to comparatively study the motivation of two important forms of international capital flows, direct investment and securities investment. The empirical results show that both the economic development level of the developed countries and that of the developed countries play a more significant role in driving and promoting the international capital flows in emerging markets. The indicators that characterize the investment environment of a country, such as the degree of trade openness, interest rates and financial deepening, are the international capital flows The important driving factors of major events such as the occurrence of major events, expectation of economic events and expectation of foreign exchange market can not be neglected. The driving factors of direct investment and securities investment have significant regional differences.