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2012年第1季度沪胶市场呈探底回升并横盘整理的倒L形态走势,沪胶指数季度涨幅为15%。第2季度天然橡胶市场的压制因素明显增多,天然橡胶价格走势可能承压。不过国内货币政策存在放宽的预期,国外市场流动性相对宽松,美国汽车消费回暖和天然橡胶生产国协会对全年天然橡胶供需缺口扩大的预估,预计将对天然橡胶市场形成支撑,沪胶指数存在回调需求,但下方26000～26800元将形成较强支撑,而在总体经济仍略显疲弱的大环境下,上方30000～31000元依旧是重要阻力区。
In the first quarter of 2012, the Hujiao market showed an inverted L-form trend with the bottoming out and sideways consolidation. The Hujiao Index rose 15% quarter-to-quarter. The natural rubber market in the second quarter of the repression significantly increased, the natural rubber prices may be under pressure. However, there is expectation of easing domestic monetary policy and relatively loose liquidity in foreign markets. The forecast for the expansion of the natural rubber supply and demand gap in the whole year for the pick up of US car consumption and the expansion of the natural rubber industry is expected to support the natural rubber market. The Hujiao Index There is a callback demand, but the bottom 26000 ~ 26800 yuan will form a strong support, while the overall economy is still slightly weak environment, the top 30000 ~ 31000 yuan is still an important resistance area.