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目的对河北省流行性腮腺炎(腮腺炎)疫情进行时间序列分析,为制定控制腮腺炎疫情策略与措施提供新的科学依据。方法利用EViews 8.0对河北省2004年1月至2014年10月建立季节自回归滑动平均混合(SARIMA)模型,使用所建模型对历史疫情进行评估,对未来疫情进行预测预警。结果最终通过检验的最优模型是SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,3)1 2,表达式为(1+1.28B+0.49B2)(1+0.39B1 2)d(ln(mt),1,12)=(1-1.45B-0.52B2)(1+0.36B1 2+0.92B2 4-0.37B3 6)εt;Theil不等式系数=0.07,BP≈0,VP≈0,CVP≈1,模型拟合和预测良好。实际值均落在了预测值的95%可信范围内,对未来的预测与往年的同期发病趋势一致。结论 SARIMA模型适用于河北省腮腺炎疫情的短期预测分析,可以配合常规的评价方法,即时地评价现行措施和预警未来疫情。
Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of mumps (Mumps) in Hebei Province in time series and provide a new scientific basis for the formulation of strategies and measures to control the epidemic of mumps. Methods EViews 8.0 was used to establish the seasonal autoregressive moving average mixed (SARIMA) model from January 2004 to October 2014 in Hebei Province. The historical model was used to evaluate the historical epidemic situation and forecast the future epidemic situation. The optimal model for the final test results is SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,3) 1 2, and the expression is (1 + 1.28B + 0.49B2) (1 + 0.39B1 2) d (ln (1 + 0.36B1 2 + 0.92B2 4-0.37B3 6) εt; Theil inequality coefficient = 0.07, BP≈0, VP≈0, CVP≈ (1-1.45B-0.52B2) 1, the model fitting and forecasting is good. The actual values all fall within 95% confidence of the forecast, and the projections for the future are in line with the trends in the same period of previous years. Conclusion The SARIMA model is suitable for the short-term prediction and analysis of the mumps epidemic in Hebei Province. It can cooperate with the conventional evaluation methods to assess the current measures and alert the future epidemic in a timely manner.