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目的分析2002—2011年中国肺结核发病的流行状况特征。方法运用ArcGis 10.0软件探索性数据分析和空间分析方法,对中国肺结核疫情数据进行空间显示和统计分析。结果肺结核发病图和空间自相关分析结果显示,2002—2011年肺结核发病存在高发区和低发区,并存在空间聚集性;局部Local Moran’s I自相关分析结果表明,新疆、贵州、广西地区为高高值聚集,北京、天津、河北、山东、辽宁、江苏为低低值聚集;局部热点分析Getis-Qrd General Gi*结果表明,全国肺结核疫情存在13个“热点”区域,其中4个“正热点”区域分别为新疆、西藏、云南、广西,9个“负热点”区域分别为北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、山西、河南、江苏、内蒙古。结论中国肺结核发病具有明显的地域分布,存在中度以上的空间聚集性,应针对其地域特点进一步研究。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in China from 2002 to 2011. Methods Using exploratory data analysis and spatial analysis method of ArcGis 10.0 software, spatial display and statistical analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic data in China were conducted. Results The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was high incidence and low incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2002-2011, and there was spatial aggregation. Local autocorrelation analysis of Local Moran’s I showed that Xinjiang, Guizhou and Guangxi were high The result of local hot spot analysis Getis-Qrd General Gi * showed that there are 13 “hotspots” in the whole country, among which 4 are “hot spots” The areas of “hot spots” are respectively Xinjiang, Tibet, Yunnan and Guangxi, and the 9 “negative hot spots” are Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia respectively. Conclusions The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in China has obvious geographical distribution, and there is more than moderate spatial aggregation, so further study should be conducted according to its geographical features.