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目前,对我国财政赤字风险进行评估较为常用的指标是财政赤字率(即财政赤字占GDP的比重)和债务依存度(即国债余额占GDP的比重)。一般认为,如果财政赤字率达到3％、债务依存度达到60％,则认为财政赤字风险达到警戒线水平。我们认为,仅仅对以上指标进行度量并不能充分体现出我国财政赤字的风险水平,不足以构成我国财政赤字风险的科学预警指标体系。本文试图从财政赤字结构风险的角度,研究财政赤字风险评估指标并对其进行改进和完善,从而更全面准确地评估和防范风险。
At present, the more commonly used indicators for assessing the fiscal deficit risk in our country are the fiscal deficit rate (that is, the fiscal deficit as a share of GDP) and the debt dependence (that is, the balance of national debt as a percentage of GDP). Generally believed that if the fiscal deficit rate reached 3%, debt dependence reached 60%, then that the fiscal deficit risk reached the warning level. In our opinion, merely measuring the above indicators does not fully reflect the risk level of our fiscal deficits and is not enough to constitute the scientific early warning indicator system for the fiscal deficit risk in our country. This paper attempts to study the index of the fiscal deficit risk assessment from the perspective of the structural risk of fiscal deficits and improve and perfect it so that the risks can be evaluated and prevented more comprehensively and accurately.