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为研究高速公路施工区车辆强制换道行为及其影响因素,采用生存分析中的半参数分析方法建立强制换道耗时的乘法风险率模型.通过无人机拍摄采集高速公路施工区的车辆换道耗时及其影响因素数据,最终确立换道耗时Cox比例风险模型,对换道耗时数据进行Cox回归建模分析.结果表明:近77%的换道车辆在10 s内完成换道;小型车和中型车经养护施工区的换道耗时未发现显著性差别;对于相同的换道耗时,平峰期的累积生存率明显低于高峰期和过渡时期,而高峰期的累积生存率最高.建立的强制换道耗时生存模型可有效的定量分析车型和交通时段对高速公路施工区车辆换道行为的影响,可为高速公路施工区交通管理控制及车辆换道行为建模及仿真奠定一定的理论基础.
In order to study the forced lane changing behavior of expressway construction area and its influencing factors, a semi-parametric analysis method of survival analysis was used to establish a multiplicative risk rate model of mandatory lane changing time. The time-consuming and time-consuming data of road and the influencing factors, the Cox proportional hazards model of lane change time-lapse was finally established and Cox regression modeling was performed on the time lapse data of lane change.The results showed that nearly 77% ; No significant difference was found in the lanes changeover between the maintenance of small cars and medium-sized cars; the cumulative survival rate of peak-hour was obviously lower than that of peak and transition for the same lanes, and the cumulative survival at peak The highest rate.The forced time-lapse survival model established can effectively quantify the effect of vehicle type and traffic hours on the lane changing behaviors of expressways in the construction area, and can be used for traffic management control and lane changing behavior of expressway construction area. The simulation lays a certain theoretical foundation.