论文部分内容阅读
商业景气指数是反映商业活动运行的周期状态和行业变动趋势的一种综合指数。它为商业运行提供客观分析与预判信号，更好地实现市场运行管理和监控，对于各类市场主体进行经济决策意义重大。本研究通过建立商业景气指标体系，构建先行指标、一致指标及滞后指标，完成了商业景气合成指数及预警信号设计；以黑龙江省为例，选取代表行业检验了本文的商业景气合成指数及预警设计的科学性及可操作性。“,”The business climate index reflects the cycle state of business activities, and it is a comprehensive index which be made by weighing key indicators reflecting business operation and can reflect the trend of industry changes. It provides an objective historical analysis and pre judgment signal for the commercial operation, better achieving the market operation management and monitoring, and has important significance for various types of market players to make eco?nomic decisions. Through the establishment of the business climate index system, this paper set up the leading indica?tors, consistent indicators and lagging indicators, including total fixed asset investment growth rate, regional GDP growth rate, gross output value of agriculture, forestry and fisheries growth rate, consumer price index, regional plate index in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, deposits of residents growth rate, commercial sector index in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, commodity retail price index, sales growth rate, number of corporate growth rate, total profit growth rate, number of employees of corporate growth rate, and mainly studied the business climate synthetic index and the design of early warning signal. By taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the paper empirically studied its busi?ness climate synthetic index and early warning by selecting retail, accommodation and catering industry, wholesale trade, agricultural products wholesale and drug circulation industry as representatives.