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本文旨在说明金融危机的影响力,并相应地指出盖然马克思主义(‘new’probabilistic Marxism)对重振政治经济的潜在贡献。我们首先将大众对此次危机的理解,转移到专业经济学家的理解层面。大众对此次金融危机的理解主要集中在金融行业的高端人士的巨额租金收益上。而专业领域讨论,则把重点放在理论和实践背后不完善的概率假设,特别是假设金融资产恢复正态分布,在实践经验面前,这些分布的峰值更高。在第二部分,我们将分析这篇论文所处的大背景,及其对于理解资本主义经济的一些启发。“厚尾”分布在市场过程各种结果中十分常见。其中最出名的例子是收入和财富分配的帕累托尾部组成,这不是一个简单的经验事实,这种分布稳定地出现在各种各样基于代理的模型中。第三部分展示了马克思政治经济与金融危机现象之间的实践经验联系。发展学派盖然马克思主义学界有一个十分著名的假设,在对其进行的测试中证明了金融资产回报的幂率拖尾是公司利润率分布形态的又一个特征。第四部分讨论了盖然马克思主义文献发展中一些比较重要的,第五部分讨论的是这种方法在马克思自己的作品中有哪些理论支持。结论部分,我们认为盖然马克思主义不是一种创新的说法,而是马克思的研究方法的复兴。
This article aims to illustrate the impact of the financial crisis and to point out accordingly the potential contribution of ’new’ probabilistic Marxism to the revitalization of the political economy. We first move the public’s understanding of the crisis to the level of professional economists’ understanding. The general public’s understanding of the financial crisis mainly focused on the huge rental income of the top financial professionals. The discussion in the field of specialization focuses on the imperfect probability hypothesis behind the theory and practice, especially assuming that the financial assets return to a normal distribution, and the peak value of these distributions is higher in the practical experience. In the second part, we will analyze the background of this thesis and some enlightenment on understanding the capitalist economy. “Thick tail ” distribution in the market process a variety of results is very common. The best known example of this is the Pareto-tail composition of income and wealth distribution. This is not a simple empirical fact. This distribution is steadily occurring in a variety of agent-based models. The third part shows the practical experiences and connections between Marx’s political economy and the financial crisis. The development school Gailing Marxist academics have a very famous hypothesis, in its tests proved that the power of financial assets tailing the tail of the rate of return distribution of the company is another feature of the distribution pattern. The fourth part discusses some of the more important aspects of the development of Marxist Marxist literature. The fifth part discusses the theoretical support of this method in Marx’s own work. In the conclusion part, we think that Gailing Marxism is not an innovative argument but a revival of Marx’s research methods.