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本文对华北地区公元1400年以来的16次M≥7强震和随机选取的191次“无强震”,研究 了下列一组震兆:地震活动水平;b值:空区;地震的条带分布和地震的集中性。对每项震兆,建立了该震兆为异常的一个或数个定量的准则,然后用模式识别法综合分析了这组震兆。结果表明:强震前地震活动水平增强和中小地震集中在强震震中附近可能是重要的震兆;b值异常在综合预测中也起了较大的作用;空区和地震的条带分布所起作用较弱。一系列控制试验表明结果是稳定的。基于对这组震兆的研究,在计算机上建立了“应用模式识别方法的综合预测方案”,并试用于强震的预测。
In this paper, we study 16 sets of M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes and a total of 191 randomly selected “strong earthquakes” since 1400 AD in North China. The following sets of earthquakes are studied: seismic activity level; b value: empty space; seismic band Distribution and earthquake concentration. For each earthquake, one or several quantitative criteria for the earthquake is established, and then the group of shocks is synthetically analyzed by pattern recognition. The results show that the increase of seismic activity level before strong earthquakes and the concentration of small and medium earthquakes in the vicinity of the epicenter of strong earthquakes may be important earthquakes. The b-value anomaly also plays an important role in the comprehensive prediction. Less effective. A series of control tests show that the results are stable. Based on the study of this set of earthquake truncation, a “synthetic forecasting scheme using pattern recognition method” was established on the computer and tried to predict strong earthquakes.