论文部分内容阅读
全球气候变化下极端气象灾害频发,农业深受影响,作物产量不稳,市场价格波动较大。本文构建1998~2012年间四川省甘蔗气象灾害风险发育与传递的改进蛛网模型和多因子计量模型,分析发现甘蔗产量依次与蔗糖价格、温度、降水量、播种面积等存在长期稳定关系,上年蔗糖价格每单位百分点的增减平均会导致甘蔗产量133 490个百分点的同向增减,每单位百分点的温度升高平均可增产甘蔗58 208个百分点,降水量与种植面积尽管也呈正向影响,两者的影响力度却相比其他都小。另外,还发现甘蔗气象灾害风险发育与传递机理呈“全球气候变化→极端气象灾害发生→农作物产量变化→粮食市场价格波动→经济社会发展风险”的规律。对提高区域性甘蔗气象灾害的分析评估与预测能力,强化事前防灾减灾效果,减轻甘蔗气象灾害对甘蔗产区农户和糖厂的经济危害等有参考价值。
Due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather disasters under global climate change, agriculture is greatly affected. The output of crops is unstable and the market price fluctuates greatly. This paper constructs an improved cobweb model and multi-factor model to estimate the risk of sugar cane meteorological disasters in Sichuan province from 1998 to 2012. The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between sugar cane yield and sucrose price, temperature, precipitation, sown area, The increase / decrease in price per unit of percentage will lead to an increase or decrease in output of 133,490% of sugarcane in average, while the increase in temperature per percentage point will increase the average yield of sugarcane by 58,208 percentage points. Although precipitation and planting area have a positive impact, The impact of those who are smaller than the other. In addition, we also find that the mechanism of meteorological disaster risk development and transmission in sugarcane is the rule of “global climate change → occurrence of extreme meteorological disasters → changes in crop yields → fluctuations in grain market prices → risks of economic and social development.” It is of great value to improve the analysis and assessment of regional sugarcane meteorological disasters, to enhance the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation in advance and to reduce the economic hazard of sugarcane meteorological disasters on farmers and sugar mills in sugarcane producing areas.