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一、引言天气预报同其它一切科学一样,都在向着客观化、定量化的方向发展。目前,已有足够的依据证明,世界上的数值预报的天气形势预报水平,已明显高于天气学方法的预报水平和预报员的经验预报水平。可以说,数值预报为天气预报向着客观化、定量化的方向发展,奠定了牢固的数学物理基础。虽然,数值预报在预报天气形势(包括一些物理量场的预报)方面,已具有较高的水平;但是,用数值预报尚难于较准确地直接作出局地的具体天气预报。
I. INTRODUCTION Weather forecasting, like all other sciences, is moving in the direction of objectivity and quantification. At present, there is sufficient evidence to prove that the world’s weather forecasting for numerical forecasts has been significantly higher than the weather forecasting method and forecasters’ forecasting experience. It can be said that numerical forecasting has laid a solid foundation in mathematics and physics for the development of weather forecast in the objective and quantitative direction. Although the numerical forecast has a higher level in forecasting the weather situation (including the forecast of some physical field), it is difficult to forecast the specific weather in the local area directly with the numerical forecast.