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科学准确地预测铁路客运量是制定铁路网规划的基础。以全国铁路客运量的历史数据为基础,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型进行组合优化,建立了基于IOWGA(Induced Ordered Weighted GeometricAveraging)算子的组合预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行了检验,检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效的、可靠的,具有较高的精度,可对我国的铁路客运量进行预测。最后利用所建立的预测模型预测了2008年--2010年我国铁路客运量。
Scientifically and accurately predicting the railway passenger volume is the basis for formulating the railway network planning. Based on the historical data of the national railway passenger volume, the gray GM (1,1) model and the cubic exponential smoothing model are used to optimize the combined forecasting model. The combined forecasting model based on the IOWGA (Iced Coined Weighted Geometric Averaging) operator is established. The test results show that the combined forecasting model is effective, reliable and accurate. It can predict the passenger volume in China. Finally, the prediction model established predicts the railway passenger traffic between 2008 and 2010 in China.