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影响港口运输的因素多而复杂,且货物吞吐量的时间序列往往不平稳,如果通过找出影响港口货物吞吐量的因素变量,并建立回归模型进行分析,往往会存在自变量构造技术上的困难以及产生虚假回归问题等等。因此,本文采用时间序列分析中的Box-Jenkins方法对我国沿海规模以上港口货物吞吐量进行建模及预测,其结果表明运用Box-Jenkins方法建模预测能大大减小误差,提高预测的精确性,从而为合理制定我国港口的发展战略提供条件。
The factors influencing port transportation are complex and complicated, and the time series of cargo throughput is not always stable. If we find out the factor variables that affect the cargo throughput of port and establish the regression model to analyze, there are often technical difficulties in construction of independent variables As well as the problem of producing false regression and so on. Therefore, this paper uses the Box-Jenkins method in time series analysis to model and forecast the cargo throughput of above-scale coastal ports in China. The results show that using the Box-Jenkins method can greatly reduce the errors and improve the accuracy of prediction , So as to provide reasonable conditions for the development of China’s port development strategy.