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对我国出口导向型发展战略的成效有两种针锋相对的评价,主流的观点是此战略成就巨大,而以仲大军为代表的非主流观点则是得不偿失。细究之下,后一种观点才是符合常识和理论传统的。即使同意前一种观点,在目前的国际经济形势下,出口导向型战略实际上已经不可持续。要解释这种状况,主流的自由贸易理论已不能胜任,我们必须进行深刻的理论反思。这种反思的著名先驱是保罗·萨缪尔森。本文更进一步,以生产过剩的视角取代西方主流经济学的资源稀缺视角,说明阻碍自由贸易和引发当前经济危机的根本原因仍是马克思等经济学家指出过的生产过剩。不认真正视和妥善解决生产过剩问题,国际贸易就不可能实现真正的自由,经济危机的可能性也不会彻底消除。
There are two kinds of tit-for-tat assessments of the effectiveness of China’s export-oriented development strategy. The mainstream view is that this strategy has huge achievements, while the non-mainstream viewpoint represented by Zhong Dajun is not worth the candle. After careful study, the latter point of view is in accordance with common sense and theoretical traditions. Even agreeing with the former viewpoint, under the current international economic situation, export-oriented strategies are virtually unsustainable. To explain this situation, mainstream free trade theory is no longer competent. We must carry out profound theoretical reflections. The famous pioneer of this kind of reflection was Paul Samuelson. This article goes further and replaces the perspective of resource scarcity in Western mainstream economics with the view of overproduction. This shows that the fundamental reason for impeding free trade and triggering the current economic crisis is still the overproduction pointed out by Marx and other economists. Without serious consideration and proper solution to the issue of overproduction, international trade will not be able to achieve true freedom, and the possibility of an economic crisis will not be completely eliminated.