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综合应用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型,分析了江苏省资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。计算了江苏省1985~2006年的生态足迹及能源足迹、耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹,在此基础上,对GDP与各种生态足迹之间的长期均衡关系与因果关系进行计量分析。结果表明:GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间存在协整关系,且总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹是GDP的单向Granger原因,林地足迹与GDP之间是双向的Granger原因。并建立了GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间的误差修正模型,利用模型分析发现短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到91.84%。研究结论揭示了江苏省的经济增长方式属于资源消耗型,总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹是影响江苏省经济增长的主要原因。因此,必须合理利用资源,加强生态环境保护,调整产业结构,发展循环经济,以实现江苏省资源、环境、经济之间的可持续发展。
With the application of ecological footprint, cointegration theory and error correction model, the paper analyzes the relationship between resource consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. The ecological footprint, energy footprint, cultivated land footprint, grassland footprint, woodland footprint, architectural footprint and water footprint of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2006 were calculated. On this basis, the long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and various ecological footprint and the cause and effect Relationship measurement analysis. The results show that there is a cointegration relation between GDP and total ecological footprint, energy footprint, cultivated land footprint and woodland footprint, and the total ecological footprint, energy footprint and cultivated land footprint are one-way Granger causes of GDP. The relationship between forest footprint and GDP is bidirectional Granger’s reason. The model of error correction between GDP and total ecological footprint, energy footprint, cultivated land footprint and woodland footprint was also established. Using the model analysis, it was found that the adjustment range of short-term volatility to long-term equilibrium reached 91.84%. The conclusion of the study reveals that the economic growth pattern of Jiangsu Province belongs to resource consumption type, total ecological footprint, energy footprint, cultivated land footprint and forest footprint are the main reasons that affect the economic growth of Jiangsu Province. Therefore, we must make rational use of resources, strengthen the protection of the ecological environment, adjust the industrial structure and develop a recycling economy so as to achieve the sustainable development of resources, environment and economy in Jiangsu Province.