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在已有理论和实证分析的基础上,本文对我国对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了的实证检验。在实证过程中,本文综合利用了 Granger,Sims和 Geweke 等非因果检验方法,并进一步考察了扩展的多变量因果性检验模型及其检验。实证结果显示:中国的经济增长和对外贸易(包括进口和出口)存在着互为因果的反馈关系;中国的经济增长对对外贸易的促进作用明显大于对外贸易对经济增长的带动作用;在引入外资、政府开支、劳动力投入和能源消耗多种变量后,外贸和经济增长之间的双向因果联系反而有所加强。
Based on the existing theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper tests the relationship between China’s foreign trade and economic growth. In the empirical process, this paper makes comprehensive use of non-causal tests such as Granger, Sims and Geweke, and further examines the extended multivariate causal test model and its test. The empirical results show that there exists a causal relationship between economic growth and foreign trade (including import and export) in China. The promotion effect of China’s economic growth on foreign trade is obviously greater than that of foreign trade on economic growth. When introducing foreign investment , Government expenditure, labor input and energy consumption, the two-way causal link between foreign trade and economic growth has actually strengthened.