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本文在分析南京市房地产市场数据以及各板块的时间序列的基础上,考察了市场中收益和风险的特征,并检验了它们是否满足市场有效性的要求。统计分析结果表明,超额收益时间序列的历史值对未来的收益有一定的解释能力,检验表明市场整体上具有弱有效性,但板块市场之间不尽相同。从板块之间的差异可以发现,城市内部板块之间的信息也存在一定的不对称,应加强城市房地产市场信息化建设,促进房地产市场有效性的提高,保障城市房地产市场健康和谐发展。
Based on the analysis of Nanjing real estate market data and the time series of each plate, this paper examines the characteristics of returns and risks in the market and tests whether they meet the requirements of market effectiveness. The results of statistical analysis show that the historic value of the excess returns time series has some explanatory power on the future returns. The tests show that the market as a whole has weak effectiveness, but the plate markets are not the same. From the differences between the plates can be found that there are some asymmetries in the information between the city’s interior plates should enhance the construction of urban real estate market information to promote the effectiveness of the real estate market to improve and ensure the healthy and harmonious development of urban real estate market.