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伴随着2004年底起取消《多种纤维协定》(MFA),关于世界纺织品服装贸易格局的变化引起了广泛的争议。本文目的是研究取消多种纤维配额限制和取消配额后实施不同的贸易安排对中国及世界纺织服装行业的影响。采用全球贸易分析模型,我们对不同贸易安排和方案做了分析,研究结果表明取消配额将不但促进中国经济发展,而且也将极大改善世界的总体福利,但各国间经济福利变化存在着巨大的差异;研究结果还表明,如果多哈谈判能够就降低纺织服装的进口关税达成一致协议,中国将是最大的受益国之一;如果在取消多种纤维配额限制后,前设限国家提高贸易技术壁垒,它将严重地削弱取消数量限制所带来的正面效应。在此基础上,我们提出了应对措施和政策建议。
With the abolition of the Multi-Fiber Agreement (MFA) since the end of 2004, changes in the world trade patterns of textile and apparel have caused widespread controversy. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of various trade arrangements on the textile and garment industry in China and the world after the abolition of various fiber quota restrictions and the abolition of quotas. Using the global trade analysis model, we have analyzed different trade arrangements and programs. The results show that the abolition of quotas will not only promote China’s economic development, but will also greatly improve the overall welfare of the world. However, there are huge changes in the economic welfare among all countries The results also show that China will be one of the largest beneficiary countries if the Doha negotiations can reach an agreement on reducing import tariffs on textile and apparel. If the former limit the countries to increase the technical barriers to trade after the abolition of the quota restrictions on various fibers, It will seriously diminish the positive effect of lifting the quantitative restrictions. On this basis, we put forward countermeasures and policy recommendations.