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为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。
In order to understand the changing characteristics and trend of temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches of the Luanhe River in the recent 50 years and its influence on the runoff in this basin, the actual temperature, precipitation and runoff depth data in the upper reaches of the Luanhe River from 1956 to 2009 were analyzed. Temperature, precipitation and runoff depth of the annual average and seasonal changes in the time series, and established the impact of climate change on the runoff of the complex regression model. The results showed that the annual runoff depth decreased with the decrease of annual precipitation and decreased with the increase of annual average temperature. The runoff depth in spring, summer and autumn varied with the precipitation and temperature in the same period and the interannual variation trend Basically the same, but the winter runoff is the opposite, but the change is very small.