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本文选取广西1990~2016年的相关数据,运用协整理论和误差修正模型,对区域城镇和农村居民收入和消费之间的关系进行了实证研究,并进一步对城乡居民收入—消费模型作了对比。结果表明,城镇和农村的居民收入和消费之间存在长期均衡关系,但是农村的居民收入和消费需求的相关性更为显著,无论是长期还是短期的收入增长,对刺激农户的消费需求都较为明显,而对于城镇来说,长期的政策比短期的政策效果要明显。因此在增加收入引导消费的政策设计上,应实施城乡非均衡政策。
This paper selects the relevant data from 1990 to 2016 in Guangxi, uses the cointegration theory and the error correction model to make an empirical study on the relationship between income and consumption of urban and rural residents in the region and further compares the income-consumption model of urban and rural residents . The results show that there is a long-term and equilibrium relationship between income and consumption of residents in urban and rural areas, but the correlation between income and consumption demand is more significant in rural areas. Both the long-term and short-term income growth have greater consumer demand for stimulating rural households Obviously, for cities and towns, long-term policies are more effective than short-term ones. Therefore, we should implement the urban-rural non-equilibrium policy in the policy design of increasing income-led consumption.