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综合分析,有两大因素将影响2012年我国宏观经济增长,一是外部经济环境的恶化,二是国内金融市场环境的内生性紧缩。尽管宏观经济政策会适当放松,但无法抵消这两大压力的影响,宏观经济将会继续调整,预计2012年GDP增长将降至8.5%左右,令人欣慰的是通胀形势将会明显好转,CPI增长将再次回落到合理区间(3%左右)。宏观经济进入调整型增长期,是一种内在发展要求,关键是要在调整型增长期中解决长期结构性矛盾。2012年宏观经济政策的重点在于缓解短期结构矛盾和为长期结构矛盾的解决创造宽松的宏观环境,在加强经济结构战略性调整和加快改革上下功夫,全面启动新一轮经济结构大调整和新一轮改革。
Comprehensive analysis, there are two major factors that will affect China’s macroeconomic growth in 2012, one is the deterioration of the external economic environment, the other is the endogenous tightening of the domestic financial market environment. Although macroeconomic policies will be appropriately relaxed, they will not be able to offset the impact of these two major pressures. The macro economy will continue to be adjusted. It is estimated that GDP growth in 2012 will fall to around 8.5%. The good news is that the inflation situation will be significantly improved. The CPI Growth will again fall to a reasonable range (about 3%). As the macro-economy enters the period of adjustment-type growth, it is an inherent requirement for development. The key is to solve the long-term structural contradictions in the period of adjustment and growth. The focus of the macroeconomic policies in 2012 will be to ease short-term structural contradictions and create a relaxed macroeconomic environment for resolving long-term structural contradictions. We will make greater efforts to strengthen the strategic readjustment and speed up the reform of the economic structure and comprehensively launch a new round of major economic structural readjustment and a new one Round of reform.