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人口老化对长期增长的影响是复杂的,因为这类影响有许多方面。但是,其含义基本上是不容置疑的:人口老化会使增长转向。如果看一看劳动、资本和技术进步(或总的生产率提高程度)等三个生产要素,那么前两个要素看来由于人口老化而趋于减少:——劳动适龄人口相对减少会直接影响劳动供应,使生产放慢;——储蓄减少会导致投资减少。生命周期理论预计储蓄会由于人口老化而减少。从长期看,这种状况将遍及所有的发达国家;届时,将不可能通过向外借贷来解决问题。在这种情况下,就可能出现缺乏储蓄,投资也可能因此遭到冻结;
The impact of population aging on long-term growth is complex as there are many aspects to this impact. However, its meaning is basically beyond doubt: an aging population tends to shift growth. If you look at the three factors of production, such as labor, capital and technological progress (or overall productivity gains), the first two elements appear to be declining due to aging populations: - The relative reduction in the working-age population will directly affect labor Supply slows production; - Less savings lead to less investment. Life-cycle theory predicts savings will decrease as the population ages. In the long run, this situation will spread across all developed countries; by then it will be impossible to solve the problem by lending outwards. Under such circumstances, there may be a lack of savings and the investment may be frozen as a result.