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本文采用增长核算对近年来我国经济增长的分解分析显示,全要素生产率(TFP)下降是我国经济发展势头不断放缓的主要原因。进一步分析则表明TFP下降与经济周期波动、产业结构转型以及我国产业技术水平对世界技术前沿追赶速度放慢等因素有关。从国际经验看,目前我国经济增速放缓符合经济发展基本规律。未来,我国需努力扩大内需水平,加快产业结构转型升级,继续强化人力资本投资,不断完善创新创业政策环境,以确保经济保持中高速增长,跨域中等收入陷阱。
In this paper, we use growth accounting to decompose our country’s economic growth in recent years. It shows that the decline of total factor productivity (TFP) is the main reason for the continuous slowdown of China’s economic development. Further analysis shows that the decline of TFP has something to do with such factors as the fluctuation of economic cycles, the transformation of industrial structure and the slowdown of technological advance in the world by the level of our country’s industrial technology. Judging from international experience, at present, the slowdown of China’s economic growth conforms to the basic law of economic development. In the future, China needs to make efforts to expand the level of domestic demand, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of its industrial structure, continue to strengthen its investment in human capital and constantly improve the environment for policymaking for innovation and entrepreneurship so as to ensure that the economy maintains a moderate-high-speed growth and a cross-border middle-income trap.