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有人一直向我们的来路看,观察广泛宏观的历史范畴,我却一直展望今后10年或15年的对外政策。我认为最有效的方法便是从最坏的情况设想。建设性的悲观看法在美国的传统中根深蒂固,它是美国宪法的基础。美国所以成为一个乐观主义者的国家,因为美国的政治制度是由悲观主义者创立的。相反,法国革命建立在乐观基础上,基于一种信念,即政治精英们能够自上而下地创造积极的结果,到头来却上了断头台,有了拿破仑的独裁统
Some people have always looked to our own ways and observed a wide range of macroscopic historical areas. However, I have been looking at the foreign policies for the next 10 or 15 years. I think the most effective way is to imagine from the worst-case scenario. Constructive pessimism is deeply rooted in the traditions of the United States and is the foundation of the U.S. constitution. The United States has therefore become an optimist country because the American political system was founded by pessimists. On the contrary, the French Revolution was based on optimism and based on the belief that political elites were able to create positive results from the top down, ending up in a guillotine, with Napoleon’s dictatorship