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<正>1.Introduction Although numerical models have demonstrated an increasing capability to forecast tropical cyclogenesis in recent years(Elliott 2010),forecasting the formation of a disturbance into a tropical cyclone has been primarily a subjective practice guided by the knowledge and experience of individual forecasters.In an effort to increase forecast consistency and accuracy,the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)Techniques Development Branch recently developed a technique to predict tropical cyclogenesis