Optimal Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation of a Land Surface Model: Sensitivity to Parameter Range

来源 :大气科学进展(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:zhangyili164958807
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined global ranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted to study the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibration and uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts by employing Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI)to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM was designed to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within a common modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complex mosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem, importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing.The model forcing data and surface flux data were collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. For each site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well as realistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parameter sets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges gives similar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce some unreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simple mode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and model complexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posterior probability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes.Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has more significant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.
其他文献
Objective: To elucidate the clinical features and prognosis of multiple primary cancers, in order to make improvement of diagnosis and treatment. Methods: A tot
According to the data of main environmental factors and the depth of localized corrosion of carbon steel and low alloy steels in China seas, combined with the r
The effects of the incorporated oxygen and the different buffer layers on the optical properties and surface morphology of GaN were studied. The results show th
为探究吕家坨井田地质构造格局,根据钻孔勘探资料,采用分形理论和趋势面分析方法,研究了井田7
Consistency of LS estimate of simple linear EV model is studied. It is shown that under some common assumptions of the model, both weak and strong consistency o
An f-edge cover-colouring of a graph G = (V, E) is an assignment of colours to the edges of G such that every colour appears at each vertex υ∈ V at least f(υ
Aluminum coatings were created onto glass beads by chemical vapor deposition in a fluidized bed reactor at different temperatures. Nitrogen was enriched with Tr
Organo-soluble fluorinated polyimides were synthesized by the polycondensation of a new aromatic diamine α,αbis(4-amino-3,5-dimethylphenyl)-4'-fluorophenyl me
The title compound (C25H17BrClN3) has been synthesized by the reaction of 1-(2- chlorophenyl)-3-(4-bromophenyl)-2-propylene-1-one with 5-amino-3-methyl-1-phenyl