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为比较DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价的效果,利用河南省杞县和汤阴县1999-2013年的气象资料、冬小麦发育期及产量数据,采用DSSAT模型和模糊数学方法构建两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型,并计算不同生育期和全生育期的冬小麦气候适宜度。利用相关分析方法,检验两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的评价效果。结果表明:杞县和汤阴县的出苗至越冬期、返青至拔节期、拔节至开花期、开花至成熟期,模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与模糊数学法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势基本一致,且呈正相关,而两个地点的越冬至返青期,两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈负相关。两个地点两种方法估算的全生育期冬小麦气候适宜度变化趋势与实测产量的变化趋势基本一致,且两种方法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度呈正相关。模型法估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数均高于模糊数学估算的冬小麦气候适宜度的标准差和变异系数。但与模糊数学法相比,DSSAT模型估算的冬小麦气候适宜度与实测产量变化更接近。DSSAT模型可用于冬小麦气候适宜度评价研究。
In order to compare the effects of DSSAT model and fuzzy mathematics on the assessment of winter wheat climate suitability, the DSSAT model and fuzzy mathematic method were used to build the data of meteorological data, winter wheat growth period and yield from 1999 to 2013 in Qi County and Tangyin County of Henan Province. Two models of climatic suitability evaluation of winter wheat and the calculation of climatic fitness of winter wheat at different growth stages and whole growth stages. The correlation analysis method was used to test the evaluation effect of the two methods on the climate suitability of winter wheat. The results showed that the trend of winter wheat climate suitability estimated by the model method and the fuzzy mathematics method is the trend of spring wheat in Qi County and Tangyin County from emergence to overwintering, turning green to jointing, jointing to flowering, flowering to maturity Basically consistent with each other, and there was a positive correlation between them. However, the winter-to-warm-green period of the two locations was negatively correlated with the climate suitability of winter wheat estimated by the two methods. The trend of winter wheat climate change during the whole growth period estimated by the two methods is consistent with the trend of the measured yield, and the two methods are positively correlated with the climate suitability of winter wheat. The standard deviation and coefficient of variation of winter wheat climate suitability estimated by the model method are all higher than the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of winter wheat climate suitability estimated by fuzzy mathematics. However, compared with the fuzzy mathematics method, the DSSAT model estimated that the winter wheat climate suitability is closer to the actual yield change. DSSAT model can be used to evaluate climate suitability of winter wheat.