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本文对传统货币理论CIU、CIA和OLG进行了评析,提出了货币稀释理论。货币稀释理论揭示了纸币的本质特征就是对产出价值的稀释或分割,找到了纸币的价值来源。在货币稀释理论基础上,我们建立了流动性过剩与全球失衡的一般均衡模型,通过综合分析,得出如下结论:第一,各国具有降低本国利率的动机,因而造成全球低利率压力。第二,高储蓄、高增长和低金融发展的中国与高消费、低增长和高金融发展的美国形成经济中的对偶关系,这造成美国经常账户赤字。第三,受美国世界经济地位和国际储备货币地位的影响,中国资本更多地流向美国,使美国资产在世界资产组合中的比例增大进而形成所谓的“格林斯潘难题”。第四,美国选择具有操作性的金融工具来控制世界经济,美国的经常账户赤字不排除美国的精心策划。
This article analyzes the traditional currency theory CIU, CIA and OLG, and puts forward the theory of currency dilution. The theory of currency dilution reveals that the essential feature of paper currency is to dilute or divide the value of output and find the value source of paper money. Based on the theory of currency dilution, we establish a general equilibrium model of excess liquidity and global imbalance. Through comprehensive analysis, we can draw the following conclusions: First, each country has the motivation to reduce its interest rate and thus causes the global pressure of low interest rate. Second, China, which has high savings, high growth and low financial development, has formed the dual duality in the economy with the United States with high consumption, low growth and high financial development, which has caused the U.S. current account deficit. Third, under the influence of the U.S. world economy and the status of the international reserve currency, Chinese capital flows more toward the United States, increasing the proportion of U.S. assets in the world’s asset portfolio and thus forming the so-called “Greenspan puzzle.” Fourthly, the United States has chosen to have operational financial instruments to control the world economy. The U.S. current account deficit does not preclude the careful planning of the United States.