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本文通过对1994年以来财政收入,尤其是税收收入的快速增长进行深入剖析,回答了中国未来税收收入快速增长的原因,以及这种快速增收势头的可持续性。实证研究表明,工业化推进、进口的增加、累进税制的个人所得税、税收征管加强是造成税收快速增长的主要原因,而且这种税基的增长保证了税收收入的可持续性。结合税收结构对“十一五”期间税收收入进行了预测。此外,还就税收收入占GDP比重进行了国际比较。最后就未来税收制度改革提出了相关的政策建议。
In this paper, an in-depth analysis of the rapid growth of fiscal revenue, especially tax revenue since 1994, answers the reasons for the rapid tax revenue growth in China in the future and the sustainability of this rapid growth. Empirical studies show that industrialization, import increase, progressive tax system of personal income tax, tax collection and management is to enhance the rapid growth of tax revenue is the main reason, and this tax base to ensure the sustainability of tax revenue. Combined with the tax structure, the tax revenue during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” was predicted. In addition, an international comparison of tax revenue as a share of GDP was conducted. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the future tax system reform.