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粮食是国民经济的基础,研究粮食价格的波动并针对价格波动的特征提出可行性对策具有一定的现实意义。本文通过运用ARCH类模型,选取小麦、玉米和大豆作为研究对象,进行波动分析,表明:玉米不存在显著的异方差效应;小麦和大豆具有价格波动的集簇性;小麦和大豆均存在信息的不对称性;小麦市场不存在高风险高回报的特征,但大豆市场存在。要加强对小麦市场的价格上涨的监测和控制。对大豆市场应当通过一系列的措施争取定价权。
Food is the foundation of the national economy. It is of practical significance to study the fluctuation of the grain price and put forward the feasible countermeasures to the characteristics of the price fluctuation. In this paper, we use the ARCH model to select wheat, corn and soybean as the research object, and carry out the volatility analysis. The results show that there is no significant heteroscedastic effect in maize; the volatility of wheat and soybean are clustered; the information of both wheat and soybean Asymmetry; the wheat market does not have the characteristics of high risk and high returns, but the soybean market exists. To strengthen the monitoring and control of the price rise in the wheat market. The soybean market should strive for pricing power through a series of measures.