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宁波港运输业务的发展状况对宁波经济和浙江经济有重要影响,所以如何准确预测宁波港吞吐量,就成为一个重要课题。经过分析比较,本文运用时间序列预测模型中的ARIMA模型,先后进行多次建模尝试,最终建立最优ARIMA(3,1,4)模型,并顺利通过一系列检验。运用该模型,对宁波港吞吐量进行预测,精度较高。同时预测结果显示,近两年宁波港吞吐量将继续保持低速增长。
The development of Ningbo Port transport business has a significant impact on Ningbo’s economy and Zhejiang’s economy. Therefore, how to accurately predict the throughput of Ningbo Port has become an important issue. After analyzing and comparing, we use the ARIMA model in the time series forecasting model to make several modeling attempts in the end, finally establish the optimal ARIMA (3,1,4) model and pass a series of tests successfully. Using this model, the throughput of Ningbo Port can be predicted with high accuracy. At the same time forecast results show that in the past two years Ningbo Port throughput will continue to maintain low growth.