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目的建立山东省手足口病发病的SARIMA模型并进行预测。方法应用SPSS17.0软件对山东省2005年1月至2011年12月手足口病月发病率进行SARIMA模型建模拟合。结果 SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12能较好地拟合既往时间段的发病率,对2011年各月的预测值符合山东省手足口病实际发病率变动趋势,对2012年手足口病发病率进行了预测。结论 SARIMA模型能较好地模拟手足口病发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势,用其对未来的发病率进行预测,可为手足口病防治工作提供参考。
Objective To establish and predict the SARIMA model of HFMD in Shandong Province. Methods SPSS17.0 software was used to simulate the SARIMA model of monthly incidence of HFMD in Shandong Province from January 2005 to December 2011. Results SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) 12 could well fit the incidence of previous time periods. The predicted values for each month of 2011 met the trend of actual incidence of HFMD in Shandong Province, The incidence of HFMD in 2012 was predicted. Conclusion The SARIMA model can better simulate the trend of time-series changes in the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease, and predict the future incidence with SARIMA model, which may provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of hand-foot-mouth disease.