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基于1999-2014年河南省统计数据,运用因子分析法估算河南省新型城镇化建设水平,并运用误差修正模型分析河南省新型城镇化对经济增长的影响,可以发现,基础设施及人口因子是影响河南省新型城镇化的主要因素;河南省新型城镇化可以分为缓慢增长、波动增长及快速增长三个阶段;城镇化建设对经济增长的短期推动作用不足,长期推动作用较强,城镇化建设对经济增长产生一种负向修正机制;城镇化建设对经济增长的推动作用,要显著高于经济增长对城镇化水平提高的带动作用。为此,需要努力提高新型城镇化水平,推动河南经济增长。
Based on the statistics of Henan Province from 1999 to 2014, using factor analysis to estimate the level of new urbanization in Henan Province and using error correction model to analyze the impact of new urbanization on economic growth in Henan Province, it can be found that the infrastructure and population factors are influencing Henan Province, the new urbanization of the main factors; new urbanization in Henan Province can be divided into slow growth, volatility growth and rapid growth of three stages; urbanization on short-term economic growth promotion role of short-term promotion of a strong role in urbanization A negative correction mechanism for economic growth; the role of urbanization in promoting economic growth is significantly higher than the driving effect of economic growth on the urbanization level. To this end, we need to work hard to raise the level of new urbanization and promote Henan’s economic growth.