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全球海平面变化不仅表现为明显的长期性趋势和季节性变化特征,而且还可能具有年际和年代际变化特征.本文联合卫星测高和验潮站观测数据各自具备的优势,重构了1948～2007年间全球平均海平面变化时间序列.基于该序列,计算得到20世纪后半期海平面上升加速度约为0.010±0.009mm/a2,并分析发现海平面变化存在包括年代际在内的多尺度低频振荡,而1993～2003年期间的海平面变化正处在低频振荡的加快上升期.然后利用移去长期性趋势后重构的海平面变化时间序列,分析发现海平面变化低频信号与南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡指数之间表现了较强的相关性,但在部分时间段内存在一定差异,其原因可能是频发的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象及太平洋年代际振荡短期反相事件共同作用的结果.
The global sea level change not only shows obvious long-term trends and seasonal changes, but also may have interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics.In this paper, combined with the advantages of satellite altimetry and tide gauge observations, the paper reconstructs 1948 Based on this series, the acceleration of sea level rise in the second half of the 20th century was calculated to be about 0.010 ± 0.009mm / a2, and it was found that the sea level change has multi-scale low frequency including interdecadal And the sea level change during 1993 ~ 2003 is in the rising period of low frequency oscillation.And then, using the time series of sea level changes reconstructed after removing the long-term trend, it is found that the sea level change low frequency signal is consistent with the southern oscillation And the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index show strong correlation, but there are some differences in some time periods, which may be the result of the frequent interaction of El Niño and La Niña events and the short-term inverse events of the Pacific decadal oscillation .