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今年将是地产转折元年,暴利时代结束,回归社会平均回报率。由于今年美国经济复苏,雾霾和政治因素加速中资向美国及个别欧洲国家转移,美元弱势不在,人民币升值预期减弱,欧元看平或继续弱势。但同时由于国内资金在境外虚假进出口套汇差部分回流,也增加部分资金量。股市一定好于去年,黄金会温和反弹。虽制造业日子难过,民资依然丰沛。因此判断,今年的地产适度看空,成交量和价格的跌幅会在20%左右。
This year will be the first year of a real estate turning point, the era of huge profits ended, return to the average social rate of return. Due to the U.S. economic recovery this year, smog and political factors have accelerated the transfer of Chinese capital to the United States and some European countries, the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the weaker expectation of the appreciation of the renminbi have made the euro flat or continue to be weak. However, at the same time, due to the partial return of the domestic exchange rate of foreign exchange earnings from the false import and export of domestic funds, some funds are also increased. The stock market must be better than last year, the gold will rebound mildly. Although the manufacturing industry is sad, private capital is still abundant. Therefore, judging, this year’s real estate bearish, the volume and price decline will be about 20%.