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目的探讨哈尔滨市寒潮、热日对人群脑出血死亡的影响。方法收集2008-2010年哈尔滨市脑出血逐日死亡数据和哈尔滨市大气污染及气象监测资料,采用基于时间序列的Poisson广义相加模型,在控制了长期趋势、星期几效应及大气污染、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析寒潮与脑出血死亡的关系。结果 2008-2010年哈尔滨共发生38d寒潮、14 d热日;寒潮日发生脑出血死亡人数是非寒潮日的1.27倍(P=0.118),热日发生脑出血死亡人数是非热日的2.06倍(P=0.001);尚未发现寒潮、热日等极端天气对不同职业、年龄、性别、文化程度脑出血患者死亡情况的影响。结论建议采取有效的气候变化减缓和适应措施,建立极端气候健康风险预警模型,及时发布预警信息,提高居民应对能力,减少极端气候带来的疾病负担和经济负担。
Objective To investigate the influence of cold wave and hot day on the death of cerebral hemorrhage in Harbin. Methods The daily death data of cerebral hemorrhage in Harbin from 2008 to 2010 and the data of air pollution and meteorological monitoring in Harbin were collected. The Poisson generalized additive model based on time series was used to control long-term trends, day-of-week effects, air pollution and meteorological factors On the basis of confounding factors, the relationship between cold surge and cerebral hemorrhage was analyzed. Results A total of 38 days of cold wave occurred in Harbin during 2008-2010 and 14 days of hot day. The number of death from cerebral hemorrhage on cold wave day was 1.27 times of that on non-cold wave day (P = 0.118). The number of death from cerebral hemorrhage on hot day was 2.06 times of that on non-fever day = 0.001). The impact of extreme weather such as cold wave and hot day on the death of cerebral hemorrhage patients with different occupations, ages, sexes and educational level has not been found yet. Conclusions It is suggested to adopt effective climate change mitigation and adaptation measures to establish an early warning model of extreme climate and health risks, timely release of early warning information to improve residents’ coping ability and reduce the burden of disease and economic burden caused by extreme weather.