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利用新疆1978-2011年的时间序列数据,使用岭回归的实证计量方法,基于C-D生产函数得出技术贡献率,测算技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应,实证结果表明新疆地区存在着明显的回弹效应,且回弹效应在10%-35%间波动,20世纪90年代能源回弹效应低于80年代,进入2000年后平均能源回弹效应下降为19.80%,能源消费回弹效应呈现下降的趋势。从“硬”技术和“软”技术的角度分析了产生能源回弹效应的原因,提出了优化产业结构,调控能源价格和税收的方法来调整能源消费。
Using the time series data from 1978 to 2011 in Xinjiang, empirical regression analysis with Ridge Regression was used to derive the technical contribution rate based on the CD production function, and to estimate the rebound effect of technological progress on energy consumption. The empirical results show that there are obvious returns And the rebound effect fluctuated between 10% and 35%. The energy rebound effect in the 1990s was lower than that in the 1980s. After 2000, the average energy rebound effect dropped to 19.80%, and the rebound effect of energy consumption showed a decline the trend of. From the perspective of “hard” technology and “soft” technology, this paper analyzes the causes of the energy rebound effect and proposes ways to optimize energy consumption by optimizing industrial structure, regulating energy prices and taxes.