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为了揭示关中地区主要河流天然径流系列丰枯状态及其变化规律,研究结合游程理论、Markov过程和时间序列方法,对关中地区渭河干流及其十余条重要支流的丰枯变化进行了系统分析。结果表明:偏枯状态是关中地区河流的主要状态,大多数河流的单独丰水概率要比单独枯水概率大,而多年连续枯水游程概率大于连续丰水概率,即关中河流较易发生单独丰水年和连续干旱年。这些表明关中地区河流的径流变化大,旱涝并存且干旱缺水问题相对突出。
In order to reveal the abundance and variation of natural runoff of the major rivers in the Guanzhong region and to study the changes of the abundance and the decline of the Weihe River main stream and its more than ten important tributaries in the Guanzhong region by means of the run-length theory, Markov process and time series method. The results show that the partial dry state is the main state of the river in the Guanzhong area. The probability of individual abundant water in most rivers is larger than that of single dry river, while the probability of continuous dry run of many years is greater than the probability of continuous abundant water in many years, Water year and successive years of drought. All these show that the runoff in the Guanzhong area is large, with the coexistence of drought and flood, and the problem of drought and water shortage relatively prominent.