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本文是在文献[1]的基础上进一步工作的结果,得到了一族可描述地震活动非等周期变化的可靠函数,其故障率函数与实测值符合得较好。此函数中的常参数α同样可作为判断地震活动各阶段的数值判据,且可以其故障率数值作为指标对地震活动的中、长期趋势作出预报,参数l可用于该活动阶段(对大释放阶段而言)主震发震时刻的上限估计。对1962年3月19日新丰江6.1级地震前的地震序列,此函数的故障率与实测值拟合得较好。
This paper is the result of further work based on the literature [1], and a family of reliable functions that can describe the non-equal periodic change of seismicity is obtained. The failure rate function of the earthquake fault line is in good agreement with the measured value. The constant parameter α in this function can also be used as a numerical criterion for judging the various stages of seismic activity, and can predict the medium-term and long-term trends of seismic activity with its failure rate as an indicator. The parameter l can be used in this activity stage Stage) the upper limit of the main shock occurrence time. For the earthquake sequence before the Ms6.4 Xinfengjiang earthquake on March 19, 1962, the failure rate of this function fits well with the measured values.