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副溶血弧菌是一种重要食源性致病菌,牡蛎是其主要携带者之一。为了量化评估牡蛎养殖过程中副溶血弧菌感染的风险,采用德菲尔法、层次分析法和多指标综合体系评价法,将专家经验知识和现代数学方法结合,构建了由评估指标体系、风险因素权重、评分标准、综合评价函数等组成的牡蛎养殖过程中副溶血弧菌风险评估模型。其中,评估指标体系包括水质、养殖管理、健康状况等3个准则层和水温、盐度、pH、氨氮、亚硝酸盐、溶解氧、养殖模式、养殖密度、场址选择、日常管理、细菌感染、病毒感染、寄生虫感染等13个指标层风险因素;3个准则层风险因素权重值集合为W={0.5278,0.3325,0.1396},指标层风险因素中水温(0.2270)、盐度(0.1368)和养殖密度(0.1409)等权重值较高,为影响副溶血弧菌感染的主要风险因子;分别建立了定性和定量评估指标的评分标准。以广东阳江某牡蛎养殖场为例,运用多指标综合体系评价法对该模型进行验证,得出该牡蛎养殖场春季、夏季、秋季和冬季副溶血弧菌感染发生风险概率为分别0.2281、0.5833、0.2723和0.1347,评估结果与实际调查结果相符,说明该模型可用于牡蛎养殖中副溶血弧菌感染风险估算。
Vibrio parahaemolyticus is an important foodborne pathogen, and oyster is one of its main carriers. In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infection during oyster culture, the author used the Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the multi-index system evaluation method to combine the experience of experts and modern mathematics methods to construct an evaluation index system, risk Factorial weight, grading standard, comprehensive evaluation function and other components of oyster breeding process Vibrio parahaemolyticus risk assessment model. Among them, the assessment index system includes three criteria such as water quality, aquaculture management and health status, water temperature, salinity, pH, ammonia nitrogen, nitrite, dissolved oxygen, culture mode, stocking density, site selection, routine management, bacterial infection Risk factors such as virus infection and parasitic infection. The risk factors of the three criteria layers were W = {0.5278,0.3325,0.1396}, water temperature (0.2270), salinity (0.1368) And stocking density (0.1409) were the main risk factors affecting Vibrio parahaemolyticus infection. The scoring criteria of qualitative and quantitative evaluation index were established respectively. Taking an oyster farm in Yangjiang, Guangdong as an example, the model was verified by using the multi-index comprehensive system evaluation method, and the risk of the Vibrio parahaemolyticus infection in the oyster farm was 0.2281 and 0.5833, respectively, in the spring, summer, autumn and winter. 0.2723 and 0.1347, respectively. The results of the assessment are consistent with the actual findings, indicating that the model can be used to estimate the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infection in oyster culture.