论文部分内容阅读
目的了解山西省2006-2010年布鲁氏菌病(布病)疫情状况,建立布病分析模型,为布病预测与防治提供决策依据。方法根据山西省2006-2010年布病监测资料,构建时间序列自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,并进行了短期预测预报。结果所建山西省布病ARIMA模型拟合效果较好,中期布病发病数预测与实际趋势基本一致,结果解释符合专业实际。结论 ARIMA模型预测山西省布病发病状况可行,结果可信。
Objective To understand the epidemic situation of brucellosis (brucellosis) in Shanxi Province from 2006 to 2010 and to establish a cloth disease analysis model to provide decision-making basis for the prediction and control of brucellosis. Methods According to the surveillance data of brucellosis in Shanxi Province from 2006 to 2010, the time series autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed and the short-term forecast was made. Results The ARIMA model of brucellosis in Shanxi province fitted well. The prediction of the incidence of brucellosis in the medium term was in good agreement with the actual trend. The interpretation of the results was in line with the actual situation of the profession. Conclusion ARIMA model predicts the incidence of brucellosis in Shanxi Province is feasible and the result is credible.