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运用生态足迹模型、灰色预测模型及资料文献汇总分析等方法,通过对河北省2001-2007年的生态足迹的动态研究,找出生态足迹变化的主要驱动因素,并对未来的生态足迹进行预测,进而对未来可持续发展提出相应的可行性对策,以期对河北省的可持续发展实施良性调控,促进河北省全面、协调、可持续发展。研究显示:近年来,河北省的生态承载力明显减弱,而人均生态足迹呈逐年增加的趋势,出现了生态赤字,这表明河北省的社会经济发展处于不可持续状态,其发展是以对资源的过度开发为代价,特别是对可再生资源(主要是耕地)和不可再生资源(能源)的过度开发程度已经相当严重。因此,资源的合理开发利用与经济发展之间的关系研究已经成为影响社会和经济是否可持续发展的重要内容。因而,对河北省进行生态足迹的分析与评价具有重要意义。
Through the dynamic research of ecological footprint in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2007, this paper finds out the main driving factors of ecological footprint change by using the methods of ecological footprint model, gray forecasting model and data document aggregation analysis, and predicts the future ecological footprint, In order to put forward the corresponding feasible countermeasures for the future sustainable development, with a view to implementing the benign regulation and control on the sustainable development in Hebei Province and promoting the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of Hebei Province. The research shows that in recent years, the ecological carrying capacity of Hebei Province has obviously weakened, while the per capita ecological footprint has been increasing year by year. The ecological deficits have emerged, which indicates that the social and economic development of Hebei Province is unsustainable. Its development is based on resource The over-exploitation of renewable resources (mainly cultivated land) and non-renewable resources (energy) is already over-exploited at the expense of over-exploitation. Therefore, the research on the relationship between the rational development and utilization of resources and economic development has become an important part of the social and economic sustainable development. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and evaluate the ecological footprint in Hebei Province.